Illinois Soybean Association
Year 2020 Alternative Scenarios
The world economy is changing and the pace and scope of these changes is accelerating and expanding in unpredictable ways. Elevated fiscal deficits and debts in high-income countries, and the very loose monetary policies being pursued in the high-income world keeps the external environment for developing economies one characterized by volatile capital flows and business sentiment. Shifts in global alliances and political structures, the critical role of emerging technologies, the waxing and waning of the wealth of nations keeps the marketplace keenly price sensitive.
Scenario 1: Global Leader in Supply and Demand
World demand for food grows with steady population growth over next decade with the top 10 countries collectively to add 422 million people by 2020. China, alone, continues to import larger volumes of soybeans from 52 million metric tons (2009/10) to 106 million metric tons in 2020/21, more than doubling. U.S. continues to increase its share of pork traded throughout the world to serve global demand from developing nation’s growing middle class appetite for more meat. The U.S. is the largest exporter of grain fed pork in the world helping to keep domestic pork production from declining even though overall domestic meat consumption trends down. Hog production expands in the Midwest while shrinking in other areas. Hogs increase 6 million head (from its 2010/11 low point) to 71 million in 2015/16 and remains steady at that level through 2020.
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